Navigating a Less Predictable F-1 Landscape: What Enrollment Leaders Need to Know Now
International recruitment has always been a balancing act between opportunity and risk. But in 2025, that balance tipped. Visa denials have surged 173% over the past decade, F-1 processing delays disrupted summer admissions cycles, and powerhouse markets like India and Nigeria fell by more than half.
For U.S. colleges and universities, these shifts translate into real numbers: billions in lost tuition revenue and growing uncertainty about who will actually arrive on campus this fall.
That’s why Catalyst GEM’s new Intelligence Report — F-1 Volatility is Reshaping Enrollment: Here’s What Leaders Must Do — is a must-read for enrollment leaders planning for 2026 and beyond.
What the Data Reveals
The report highlights how deeply global volatility is reshaping international education:
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- Visa denials reached 41% in 2024, the highest rate in more than a decade.
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- China overtook India as the leading source of F-1 visas for the first time in years.
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- Emerging markets such as Zimbabwe (+68%), Pakistan (+27%), and Uganda (+20%) are gaining traction.
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- A series of policy disruptions in 2025 from a 22-day F-1 suspension to new social-media vetting have put an estimated $7 billion in tuition revenue at risk.
The takeaway: reliance on traditional markets and past practices is no longer sustainable.
What Leaders Can Do
Catalyst GEM’s analysis outlines both strategic imperatives and tactical steps for protecting enrollment continuity:
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- Diversify markets to reduce concentration risk and open new growth lanes.
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- Embed F-1 readiness at the I-20 stage so students arrive interview-ready and confident.
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- Use denial-aware forecasting to improve budget predictability.
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- Streamline operations through CRM/SIS integration and clear readiness reporting.
The report also includes a concise 90-day action chart leaders can implement immediately.
Why It Matters
“Visa denials aren’t just numbers. They represent lost students, lost tuition, and lost momentum,” says John Evans, Founder & CEO of Catalyst GEM. “Institutions that act now to strengthen their visa readiness and diversify their markets will protect stability well into 2026 and beyond.”
Catalyst GEM has already helped 8,000+ students from 80+ countries prepare for successful F-1 interviews — with 99% recommending the experience.
Download the Report
The global enrollment landscape isn’t getting simpler but with the right intelligence, it can become more predictable.
→ Access the full intelligence report: F-1 Volatility is Reshaping Enrollment
